Johnny Damon 那本 IDIOT 裡面有一張圖是 Damon 當選 Florida 高中明星隊時的照片，那一年的Florida 明星隊裡還有 A-Rod 以及 Todd Helton
看來 Helton 不甘寂寞，想過來美聯東區玩玩，他接下來五年 (07-11) 還有 90 M 的合約，平均一年 18M，看到報導說希望對方吃下 40M，如果對方願意吃 30 M的話，那應該馬上同意這筆交易，因為今年底 Lowell 約滿之後 Youk 回三壘，而現在的農場裡根本沒有接掌一壘的新秀，以紅襪的胃口那可能明年至少還要花個大約 8M/y 去簽 1B 的 FA ，那不如現在用 10M/y 接下 Helton，雖然長打率有點下降，但是 OBP 0.4 以上，金手套的防守再加上每年出場 150 場以上， 應該還可以接受吧？
從 Fangraph 來看 Helton 去年只有全壘打降低，其他打擊因素變化不大，Bill James 估他今年成績是 322-25-106
至於 Rockies 最近幾年在搞年輕化，他們不太可能只用 Lowell 和 Tavarez 就打發了，他們說 Ellsbury, Delcarmen, Hansen, Bard, Buchholz 至少要給一個，要是我．．．我會給他們 Delcarmen，因為他的 "屋頂" 可能較低而且他有受傷歷史
要是 Helton 過來的話，那打線變成
Youkilis
Helton
Ortiz
Ramirez
Drew
Varitek
Lugo
Crisp
Pedroia
SP：Schilling/Beckett/Matsuzaka/Papelbon/Wakefield
國內鄉民今年有機會好好認識這些人
星期一, 1月 29, 2007
星期五, 1月 26, 2007
棒球學校？
有一部電影叫 "辛德勒的名單" 相信很多人看過，有沒有人發現一件事？即使是集中營裡的身無分文的男性囚犯只要一出室外不分老小一定戴一頂帽子？這表示猶太人和德國人雙方都認為帽子已經像上衣長褲一樣是衣著的一部分，同樣的，每次播 Babe Ruth 時期的紀錄片時有沒有發現，整個球場每一個男性球迷也都戴一頂呢帽
所以我們都聽過一個故事：鴉片戰爭過後有個英國商人說：如果每一個中國人都向我買一頂呢帽，那我就發了！
後來這個故事沒有下文，不過我大概知道答案為何，因為中國人不戴呢帽！
今天看到一個很接近的故事：Yankees seek working agreement with China baseball
星期五, 1月 12, 2007
gyroball 圖解
最近 SoSH 上面有個很有趣的故事，主角在好幾個棒球網站都出了名，西雅圖地區有一個 23 歲的業餘投手兼少棒教練 Kyle 對 gyroball 有興趣，他詢問棒球專欄作家 Will Carroll 且得到同意後橫越半個美國到印第安那州去拜師學藝，而 Carroll 則是研讀日文書籍學習基本投法的Kyle 靠著從小具備的投手基礎學會了基本的 gyroball，Kyle 認為 gyroball 是一種 off-speed 球路，球速比直球慢 10 哩左右，仗著投球姿勢和直球完全一樣來混淆打者，球的握法和 2-seam 直球近似，不同的是直球出手時手背面對二壘方向，投 gyroball 手背則面向三壘方向 (各位試試看)，讓球像 football 一樣呈現 double-spin 狀態，典型的 gyroball 球路如下：
這樣的投法用想的就感覺到很傷手腕或手肘，或許 Kyle 是最有資格評論的人，因為他本人就是少棒投手出身，上大學時因肩傷被迫放棄投球改當野手，但是 Kyle 卻認為 gyroball 的傷害比其他的 breaking ball 要輕一點忍不住想看大聯盟各大打者和 gyroball 對決
參考：The Gyroball Mystery
星期六, 1月 06, 2007
Pineiro for closer ?
最近一個很意外的舉動就是無視於牛棚的擁擠簽下了 Joel Pineiro 而且放話要給他當 closer，而且也有球探說他適合當救援投手，Pineiro 有沒有能力當 closer ? 我想到的方法就是拿來和過去先發轉救援的成功案例 Eckersley, Gordon, Gagne 作比較
從這些數據看起來，如果簽到的是 2004 年底的 Pineiro，雖然那年他的成績是 6-11 4.67，但從數字以及球探的說法加持之下，Pineiro 轉任 closer 可能會交出不錯的成績
但是最近兩年他發生了什麼事？看一下 2005 Baseball Prospectus 上面的說法
Another pitching injury! This time, the promising young pitcher was sidelined by a strained right elbow, and didn't require surgery. That we know about, be the nominal #1 starter - until Madritsch beats him up in the clubhouse and steals the badge from him. Hopefully, the rest will do him good and Pineiro will start to combine all his talents into the star package he's been flirting with since 2001.
Pineiro 崛起於 2001 年也就是水手隊打出 116 勝那年，被寄以厚望甚至被認為是未來的 no.1 starter，但 2004 年 7 月他已經出現手肘不適問題，接下來 05, 06 兩年數字變得很難看了
從水手隊球迷的說法是他的手肘傷使球速從 94 掉到 88，他現況如何？到底要不要 TJ 手術？說真的我也不知道，或許敢付 400 萬的紅襪有獨家消息，不過我確定的是他的投球局數將從去年的 165 局降到 70 局左右
有趣的是 Schilling 本人用 Gehrig38 的 ID 發表了對這件事的意見：
The only thing I know is that two years ago I thought this guy had as lively stuff as anyone I had seen in a long time.
He certainly did seem to tail off last year but during some of his games he showed the mid 90s electric stuff he had all the time a few years back.
I thought, from the first day I saw him, that he was built to be a reliever with an incredible arm on a Gordon sized body.
He'll gain a decent amount of velocity heading to the pen, if he can make the mental transition this guys a serious power arm on the back end.
His curveball, when he's fresh, is a strikeout pitch, his fastball certainly is as well, but it was his changeup that wow'd everyone. Tremendous arm action, ball died without looking like it was slowing down.
This, to me anyway, is a no lose signing. This kid gets in the right mix and environment and he ends up being that kid a few years from now people say "How the hell did we let him go?"
I know he tailed off the last two years but I see no downside to adding someone with this good of an arm and some experience under his belt.
I'm still pissed we didn't sign Rollie Fingers....Oh wait, he's not available. Market was sickeningly think for the top shelf stopper this winter, I think we'll find someone to save 42 out of 52 chances this year. We do that and I like our chances.
| name | H/9P | BB/9P | SO/9P |
| Pineiro (06) | 11.4 | 3.5 | 4.7 |
| Pineiro (04) | 9.2 | 2.8 | 7.1 |
| Gordon | 7.7 | 3.9 | 7.9 |
| Gagne | 8.6 | 2.7 | 7.7 |
| Eck | 10.1 | 1.9 | 6.1 |
從這些數據看起來，如果簽到的是 2004 年底的 Pineiro，雖然那年他的成績是 6-11 4.67，但從數字以及球探的說法加持之下，Pineiro 轉任 closer 可能會交出不錯的成績
但是最近兩年他發生了什麼事？看一下 2005 Baseball Prospectus 上面的說法
Another pitching injury! This time, the promising young pitcher was sidelined by a strained right elbow, and didn't require surgery. That we know about, be the nominal #1 starter - until Madritsch beats him up in the clubhouse and steals the badge from him. Hopefully, the rest will do him good and Pineiro will start to combine all his talents into the star package he's been flirting with since 2001.
Pineiro 崛起於 2001 年也就是水手隊打出 116 勝那年，被寄以厚望甚至被認為是未來的 no.1 starter，但 2004 年 7 月他已經出現手肘不適問題，接下來 05, 06 兩年數字變得很難看了
從水手隊球迷的說法是他的手肘傷使球速從 94 掉到 88，他現況如何？到底要不要 TJ 手術？說真的我也不知道，或許敢付 400 萬的紅襪有獨家消息，不過我確定的是他的投球局數將從去年的 165 局降到 70 局左右
有趣的是 Schilling 本人用 Gehrig38 的 ID 發表了對這件事的意見：
The only thing I know is that two years ago I thought this guy had as lively stuff as anyone I had seen in a long time.
He certainly did seem to tail off last year but during some of his games he showed the mid 90s electric stuff he had all the time a few years back.
I thought, from the first day I saw him, that he was built to be a reliever with an incredible arm on a Gordon sized body.
He'll gain a decent amount of velocity heading to the pen, if he can make the mental transition this guys a serious power arm on the back end.
His curveball, when he's fresh, is a strikeout pitch, his fastball certainly is as well, but it was his changeup that wow'd everyone. Tremendous arm action, ball died without looking like it was slowing down.
This, to me anyway, is a no lose signing. This kid gets in the right mix and environment and he ends up being that kid a few years from now people say "How the hell did we let him go?"
I know he tailed off the last two years but I see no downside to adding someone with this good of an arm and some experience under his belt.
I'm still pissed we didn't sign Rollie Fingers....Oh wait, he's not available. Market was sickeningly think for the top shelf stopper this winter, I think we'll find someone to save 42 out of 52 chances this year. We do that and I like our chances.
星期三, 1月 03, 2007
2007 第一 po
不知道要說什麼，就打打高空談 2007 對棒球的願望
一願紅襪農場愈來愈強，強到來不及收割
二願 Matsuzaka 和王建民有機會正面對決，讓紅襪迷嚐一下與 2300 萬鄉民為敵的感覺
三願 CPBL 自由球員制度說到做到
四願洪先生賣掉球隊
一願紅襪農場愈來愈強，強到來不及收割
二願 Matsuzaka 和王建民有機會正面對決，讓紅襪迷嚐一下與 2300 萬鄉民為敵的感覺
三願 CPBL 自由球員制度說到做到
四願洪先生賣掉球隊
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