星期六, 1月 06, 2007

Pineiro for closer ?

最近一個很意外的舉動就是無視於牛棚的擁擠簽下了 Joel Pineiro 而且放話要給他當 closer,而且也有球探說他適合當救援投手,Pineiro 有沒有能力當 closer ? 我想到的方法就是拿來和過去先發轉救援的成功案例 Eckersley, Gordon, Gagne 作比較

nameH/9PBB/9PSO/9P
Pineiro (06)11.4 3.5 4.7
Pineiro (04)9.2 2.8 7.1
Gordon7.7 3.9 7.9
Gagne8.6 2.7 7.7
Eck10.1 1.9 6.1

從這些數據看起來,如果簽到的是 2004 年底的 Pineiro,雖然那年他的成績是 6-11 4.67,但從數字以及球探的說法加持之下,Pineiro 轉任 closer 可能會交出不錯的成績

但是最近兩年他發生了什麼事?看一下 2005 Baseball Prospectus 上面的說法

Another pitching injury! This time, the promising young pitcher was sidelined by a strained right elbow, and didn't require surgery. That we know about, be the nominal #1 starter - until Madritsch beats him up in the clubhouse and steals the badge from him. Hopefully, the rest will do him good and Pineiro will start to combine all his talents into the star package he's been flirting with since 2001.

Pineiro 崛起於 2001 年也就是水手隊打出 116 勝那年,被寄以厚望甚至被認為是未來的 no.1 starter,但 2004 年 7 月他已經出現手肘不適問題,接下來 05, 06 兩年數字變得很難看了

水手隊球迷的說法是他的手肘傷使球速從 94 掉到 88,他現況如何?到底要不要 TJ 手術?說真的我也不知道,或許敢付 400 萬的紅襪有獨家消息,不過我確定的是他的投球局數將從去年的 165 局降到 70 局左右

有趣的是 Schilling 本人用 Gehrig38 的 ID 發表了對這件事的意見:

The only thing I know is that two years ago I thought this guy had as lively stuff as anyone I had seen in a long time.

He certainly did seem to tail off last year but during some of his games he showed the mid 90s electric stuff he had all the time a few years back.

I thought, from the first day I saw him, that he was built to be a reliever with an incredible arm on a Gordon sized body.

He'll gain a decent amount of velocity heading to the pen, if he can make the mental transition this guys a serious power arm on the back end.

His curveball, when he's fresh, is a strikeout pitch, his fastball certainly is as well, but it was his changeup that wow'd everyone. Tremendous arm action, ball died without looking like it was slowing down.

This, to me anyway, is a no lose signing. This kid gets in the right mix and environment and he ends up being that kid a few years from now people say "How the hell did we let him go?"

I know he tailed off the last two years but I see no downside to adding someone with this good of an arm and some experience under his belt.

I'm still pissed we didn't sign Rollie Fingers....Oh wait, he's not available. Market was sickeningly think for the top shelf stopper this winter, I think we'll find someone to save 42 out of 52 chances this year. We do that and I like our chances.

2 則留言:

jameshu0910 提到...

很少看水手的比賽,不過聽說他的曲球還是一級棒,但是球速真的因為受傷掉這麼多嗎

DLowe 提到...

應該是吧

好幾處的說法都是 "球速下降"